Revised: Michigan Democrats in a precarious situation going into 2026 election

Republicans have a decent chance of regaining control of state government

I’m sure Michigan Democrats are well aware their situation going into the upcoming 2026 off-year election is precarious. Or perhaps ‘dicey’ is a better word.

This despite having enjoyed a measure of electoral success since 2018. That was the year when Gretchen Whitmer, Garlin Gilchrist II, Jocelyn Benson, and Dana Nessel were elected to their respective state offices, replacing the Republican predecessors as governor, lieutenant governor, secretary of state, and attorney general. The party has also seen majorities on the three elected university boards, a state Supreme Court filled mainly with justices the party had nominated for the non-partisan positions, gaining control of the state Senate for the first time in nearly 40 years (thanks to the voter-approved reform of redistricting), holding a brief two-year majority in the State House, and during this brief period having control of state government and able to enact parts of their agenda.

This success was coupled with Congressional wins by Elissa Slotkin and Hillary Scholten in seats usually occupied by GOP standard-bearers, the holding of both U.S. Senate seats, and voters approving the aforementioned redistricting reform, along with an expansion of voting rights and an abortion-rights proposal.

On the other hand, with Michigan being a purple state and having a sizable number of Independents who split their tickets and swing “like a pendulum do” from one party to the other, the Republicans were not assigned to the political wilderness. Donald Trump, having eked out a win in the 2016 Presidential race with Michigan swinging his way, did so again this past year. Of major consequence was the party regaining the state House, putting the brakes on the Democratic Party legislative priorities and leaving Governor Whitmer with limited ability to maneuver beyond what can be gained by negotiation or the veto. The term ‘lame duck’ comes to mind.

While Slotkin continued her ‘golden touch’ by replacing the retiring Debbie Stabenow, thus keeping this Senate seat in the Democratic column, it was a tight race and her vacant seat in the 7th District was filled by Republican Tom Barrett. Given that the district leans to the right and presuming Barrett stays in office, it could very well remain ‘in the red’ through the rest of the decade.

So, all that said, here’s the precarious part—or my showing what a profound grasp I have on the obvious. With all four of the top state elected offices up for grabs due to term limits and Michigan voters traditionally going the ‘pendulum thing’, it’s a clean slate on who might win. At present, there doesn’t seem to be any obvious frontrunners for any of those offices, with the governor’s post being the marquee race. Benson, having announced her candidacy to replace Whitmer, might easily win the nomination, but Detroit mayor Mike Duggan—a heretofore Democrat running as an Independent—complicates her situation to say the least.

On the GOP side, there’s Congressman John James who has tossed his hat in the ring to be Michigan’s next chief executive. While James has lost two statewide races, his chances got a big boost with a five-million-dollar donation by the Grand Rapids-based DeVos family. Duggan might cut into the independent vote, but I think it’s a safe prediction to say those voters who support Republicans will continue to do so with James—enhancing his odds in a three-person contest.

The open U.S. Senate seat came about when incumbent Gary Peters unexpectedly announced his decision to leave office at the end of his current term. Since then, a host of would-be replacements have come forth on the Democratic Party side, but only one announced Republican—former Congressman Mike Rogers. Rogers, of course, lost the tight race to Slotkin and, at that moment, seemed destined to fade into political oblivion. But the native from Brighton, a city not too many miles from my hometown of Fowlerville, has gotten a second chance and, chances are, he may join Slotkin in Washington, D.C.

Of equal consequence, although not of the marquee stature, are all those races in toss-up districts in the state Senate and House. If the Republicans regain the latter and keep the former and if James wins the governor’s race, then the fortunes of Michigan will shift decidedly to the right.

What’s been happening under the Trump Administration regarding drastic cuts to federal agencies and programs and the planned elimination of others, not to mention the stepped-up deportation of undocumented immigrants as well as those with legal status, plus the threats aimed at universities, main-stream media, civil rights protections, and political opposition may very well be duplicated in Lansing. Or supported with legislation in some fashion.

If what’s happening at the nation’s capital is to your liking, then the Republican prospects of gaining control of Michigan’s state government and emulating this course of action is cause for optimism and a motivation for support. If, on the other hand, this scenario alarms you, then the Michigan Democratic Party will need all the help it can get.

Given that the state is purple, some might argue that a continuation of divided government would serve both interests. Or keeps the less moderate instincts of both sides ‘in check’.

So, we’ll see how it all unfolds. One more election, one election more. But, as we’ve seen, the outcome does bring consequences.

Steve Horton is a mid-Michigan journalist and commentator.

NOTE ON REVISION: In my first version of this column, in the second-to-the last paragraph I wrote: “Given that the state is purple, some might argue that a return to the ‘good old days’ of divided government would serve both interests.”

Divided state government is what we have now, so instead of ‘return to the good old days’, it should say ‘a continuation’ As for the ‘good old days’ divided government was the situation for our recent Democratic governors, who served alongside Republican-controlled legislatures. The recent Republican chief executives, Gov. Rick Snyder and (for most of his tenure) Gov. John Engler, enjoyed GOP majories in both chambers.