Michigan's Election Campaign about to become hotly-contested

Observations on gubernatorial & 7th Congressional races

If you’re not a viewer of TV—which I’m not—then the current election campaign in Michigan would seem a low-key affair. Other than yard signs, an occasional ad that pops up on Facebook, a few postcards that have shown up in the mail, and the news reports, it has been a relatively quiet summer since the August primary.

However, I’m told that the usual attack ads are littering the television air waves, so my impression (it seems) is not an accurate one. Apparently, in that regard, all is well with the Republic.

But, despite my missing the action on that front, I’ll hazard a guess that plenty of evidence of a hotly-contested election will be coming my way during the next few weeks.

The gubernatorial race between the Democratic incumbent Gretchen Whitmer and the GOP standard-bearer Tudor Dixon is the marquee race, although Dixon has not (yet?) made much of a splash. The explanation is that she doesn’t have much money in her war chest—as opposed to Whitmer who is reportedly sitting on around $14 million—and, thus far, has been unable to purchase television time.

Dixon was backed in the primary by Betsy DeVos and family, along with their network of contributors, so the expectation is that this backing will eventually show up. On the other hand, Whitmer has a sizable lead in the polls and, while that margin could dwindle as Election Day nears, the difference in money (given Michigan’s size and the number of media markets) might make that a formidable obstacle with less than two months left in the campaign. Which is to say that the ‘money’ people might decide it’s a little too formidable and send their contributions elsewhere.

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The race in Michigan’s newly-drawn 7th Congressional District between U.S. Rep. Elissa Slotkin and State Senator Tom Barrett has garnered national attention and generated a lot of money in donations and outside support for both candidates.

At first glance, the district (which covers the greater Lansing area and surrounding counties) was viewed as tilting Republican. That fact, plus it being a mid-term election that presumably favors the non-presidential party, had the Republicans seeing the seat as a possible pick-up in their quest to retake the House, while the Democrats felt the need to aggressively defend the incumbent if they hoped to retain control of that chamber.

The initial judgment was that Barrett, given that he already represents part of the district as a state senator and those above-mentioned factors, held an edge. But the U.S. Supreme Court ruling on the Dobbs case earlier this summer, ending the Constitutional right of women to obtain an abortion and leaving the matter (for now) to be decided by each individual state, upended this political calculus.

A lot of women, including those who lean Republican or view themselves as Independent, support reproduction rights. In Michigan, a petition drive to enshrine those rights into state law saw a record number of signatures. Despite an effort to keep the measure off he ballot due to tight spacing between the words on the petition, the proposal will be voted on this November.

Barrett reportedly edited his web site, removing language that showed his support for overturning Roe v Wade and for a ban in nearly all cases—“100% pro life, no exceptions.” While discussing inflation and tying Slotkin to President Biden will be front-and-center in his campaign, the ballot proposal will make it tough to avoid that issue.

Slotkin, of course, will not be avoiding it.

Whether the issue proves a difference maker in the outcome of this race remains to be seem. A lot can happen to change voters’ minds, not to mention the dynamics of the race, during the forthcoming days.

One caveat to this observation (valid though it may seem) is that ‘no-reason’ absentee voting is entering another election cycle since its passage by voters in 2018. The local clerks will start mailing them out at the end of this month, with many being returned during October. So, for candidates and ballot proposals, it’s ‘now or never’ as far as reaching a lot of Michigan voters.